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In the United States, electric vehicle (EV) uptake is facing new headwinds as vehicle sales and adoption slow and charging infrastructure lags. After recording month-over-month sales growth for more than a year, EV sales began contracting in August 2022. Consumer rejection of models like Genesis’ and Volvo’s electric vehicles have already forced both companies to rethink their lineups. A new report by Telemetry Senior Vice President Sam Abuelsamid explores a new concern that could affect the broader EV market in coming years, and his assessment is less than optimistic. According to Abuelsamid, a lack of available space in U.S. garages could be a critical factor limiting EV adoption.

Electric vehicles have found a less-than-welcoming political environment in the United States. President Biden has already reversed former President Obama’s vehicle emissions rules and reduced subsidies, and the new federal tax credits, such as they are, apply to a narrower range of vehicles than previous programs. According to the Abuelsamid, the single biggest factor may be non-political: under-utilized home garages.

One thing many potential EV drivers fear is running out of charge. They’re right to be concerned, but data suggests that their anxiety is misplaced. Surveys have long indicated range anxiety as the biggest obstacle to EV purchases, but the story behind those figures is complex. New market research from Telemetry Vice President Sam Abuelsamid points to an aspect of EV charging that’s been under-reported: how often we park near a charging point.

Critics like to point to the slow pace of charger installation, especially in comparison to gasoline fueling infrastructure. The reality, however, is that fast charging points are just one part of the equation. A significant amount of charging already takes place at home. Researchers estimate that about 80 percent of EV charging is still done using AC power, most of it at a single-family residence.

One study by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) found that 42 percent of homeowners already park close to an outlet that can support a 240-volt (level 2) charger. That percentage could grow significantly, to 68 percent, if homeowners simply cleared out some space in their garages and changed their parking habits.

As Abuelsamid explains, “90 percent of all houses can add a 240 V outlet near where cars could be parked. Parking behavior, namely whether homeowners use a private garage for parking or storage, will likely become a key factor in EV adoption.” Home garages are by far the most easily accessible electric vehicle charging infrastructure in the United States. Open up your garage to a parked car instead of storage, and you move from being unable to charge at home to being able to charge one or more EVs.

The total number of houses that could charge one or more EVs would rise from 31 million to more than 50 million. That number grows to more than 72 million when one accounts for existing homes where wiring a new outlet is possible.

The problem with this forecast is not that it is too pessimistic, but that it may be far too optimistic. The NREL study also noted that nearly 34 million houses would need an electrical panel upgrade to accommodate a level 2 charger, which needs at least 30 amps. Such upgrades can cost from $1,000 to $5,000, depending on whether they require new wiring or a complete panel replacement.

The trouble is, these costs cut against one of the most potent claims made about EVs: that they are cheaper than gasoline cars over the long run. According to Auto News, the average cost of charging an electric vehicle at home is 12.3 cents per kilowatt-hour. On average, that works out to about 0.26 cents per mile. In comparison, using the national average price of regular gas, owners of an equivalent ICE car can expect to spend 0.73 cents per mile on fuel. A comprehensive nationwide study by Consumer Reports calculated the average total cost of ownership of an electric vehicle over five years to be $48,477. Over the same period, a comparable gas-powered car would total $55,324.

Long term, EVs are more affordable, but EV supporters have largely neglected to include the cost of installing home chargers. Adding even a single charger could easily add several thousand dollars to the cost of buying an EV.

Apartments and Efficiency

The costs and constraints are even more significant for people living in multifamily housing, such as apartments, condos, and townhomes, where 23 percent of the U.S. population resides. People living in such structures don’t usually have the option to upgrade their own parking spots. Instead, they need permission from their landlord, building management company, co-op board, or some combination. That can be a tall order.

In addition to gaining the necessary approvals, most multi-dwelling units also need significant electrical work before they can accommodate EV chargers. A common scenario involves spending tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars on an electrical panel upgrade before even a single charging point can be installed. Wiring a charger in a distant parking spot can add thousands of dollars to that cost.

In addition, many people living in multi-dwelling units don’t qualify for the same incentives that municipalities and utility companies offer homeowners to help defray installation costs. With millions of EV drivers currently residing in multifamily housing, the challenge of expanding access to charging points in these structures is a significant one.

According to Telemetry, only around one million of the ten million or so EV drivers who currently own a home park near an outlet where they can charge. In a state like New Jersey, which has a mandate that 20–25 percent of all parking spaces in new structures must be EV-ready, the number could be slightly higher, but those additions will take time. A NREL study determined that as of 2020 only about 2 million homes had at least one EV-ready parking space, though the number of non-ready spaces capable of installation is far higher. Despite mandates for new construction, Telemetry’s EV adoption forecasts show only 6.7 million to 11.4 million charging-capable spaces in multifamily dwellings by 2035, well short of expected demand.

Public Plans

The future of EV adoption is inextricably tied to non-residential charging infrastructure. Telemetry estimates that between 11.7 million and 14.3 million EV drivers who own houses will need to use public chargers in 2035. Another 7.8 million to 8.1 million will be EV owners living in multifamily residences. Meeting that demand would require between 523,000 and 586,000 DC fast chargers and another 1.5 million to 1.6 million level 2 chargers nationwide.

Meeting that demand is not easy either, as many utilities are already struggling to keep pace with their customers’ demands. In addition to adding capacity to serve an increasing residential population, energy providers are also competing with the recent explosion of new AI data centers for generation and distribution capacity. This competition is making it more difficult for some utilities to serve long-overlooked rural communities, let alone site and permit new large charging stations.

EV Buyers Need Parking

If forecasts of tens of millions of EVs on U.S. roads by 2035 are to be realized, it won’t be because of ambitious government targets or any one automaker’s product rollout. The key to long-term EV growth could be in millions of American garages. Home charging still has a long way to go to match gasoline fueling infrastructure, and there’s no telling how far short demand for EVs will outpace the installation of new charging equipment. What’s certain is that many EV buyers are going to have to find new places to park, whether they live in an apartment or a McMansion.